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Prediction Market Prices reports what money is betting on a US company — whether it beats its earnings estimate, whether an operating number such as deliveries or subscribers clears a threshold, and whether a topic gets raised on the next earnings call. Each observation is a snapshot of one contract’s price at an observation time.
Plan: Fund · Credits: 1 per call
This is a price, not a forecast FocusAlpha made and not a company statement. It is what someone was willing to pay for the contract.

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What You Can Use Prediction Market Prices For

Read the market-implied odds of an earnings beat alongside what management guided. Track how the odds on an operating threshold moved into a print. See which topics traders expect to come up on a call.

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This Is Not a Live Feed

Every row is a snapshot, taken roughly hourly between 12:00 and 24:00 UTC, with a gap of about 12.5 hours every night.A price fetched at 08:00 UTC is eight hours old. as_of is when it was observed and as_of_age_minutes says how stale it was when you asked. Read that before describing any probability as current — nothing about the number itself tells you which you have.

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Why Implied Probability Can Be Null

implied_probability is the midpoint of the book. It is null when the book was one-sided or its spread wider than 0.25. Treat that null as “nobody is really trading this”, not as missing data. A quarter of quoted contracts sit at bid 0.00 and ask 1.00, and serving their 0.50 midpoint would invent a “the market is split” reading that no trade supports. yes_bid and yes_ask are returned raw for anyone who wants to apply their own rule.

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Sort by Volume Before Saying “the Market Expects”

Many contracts have traded a few hundred dollars. That is a listing, not an opinion. Sort by volume and say what the volume was whenever you quote an implied probability.

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The Three Contract Categories

kpi_ladder is a set of thresholds on an operating number. call_keyword is whether a topic will be said on the earnings call. earnings_beat is whether EPS clears the estimate. Omit category to get all three.

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Prediction Market Coverage

An empty result means no contract is listed on this company, never that the market has no view. Contracts on takeovers, IPOs and delistings exist but are not reachable by company: they name their companies only in the question text.

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Prediction Market Date Convention

as_of is the observation instant of the snapshot, not the contract’s expiry and not the event date. status of settled means the contract has resolved, and settled rows carry the outcome in settled_yes.

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Prediction Market Sources

Prices come from prediction-market exchanges. FocusAlpha snapshots the book; the numbers are the exchange’s, and the implied probability is the midpoint rule described above applied to them.

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Query Prediction Market Prices

Use the prediction markets endpoint for one company.
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string
required
A company_id, ticker, CIK or ISIN.
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string
kpi_ladder, call_keyword or earnings_beat. Omit for all three.
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string
open or settled. Omit for both.
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integer
default:"100"
Rows per page, between 1 and 1000. Page through with cursor.
See also Earnings Consensus from Prediction Markets for the EPS level an earnings contract settles against, Management Guidance for what management itself said it expects, and Reported Earnings Figures for what the quarter delivered.