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Earnings Consensus from Prediction Markets reports where the market set the bar for a US company’s quarterly EPS, and whether the company cleared it. Each observation is one contract for one quarter, carrying the EPS threshold it settles against, the basis it is written on, and the settlement outcome.
Plan: Fund · Credits: 1 per call

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What You Can Use Earnings Consensus For

Read the bar a quarter was judged against, struck at a date you can point to. Compare that bar with what management guided and with what the release printed. Build a beat-and-miss history that does not depend on a running estimate.

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Why the Threshold Does Not Drift

eps_threshold is a property of the contract: the EPS level that decides how it settles, struck where expectations sat when the contract was written. It is fixed at listing and never revised afterwards, so it does not drift with later news the way a running consensus estimate does. That makes it a stable historical bar, and a different thing from a sell-side consensus number.

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GAAP and Non-GAAP Are Different Contracts

basis separates GAAP from non-GAAP. They are different contracts written against different levels, so pooling them compares an adjusted figure with a GAAP one.Omit basis to see both, but do not aggregate across it.

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Two Separate Settlement Claims

cleared is the exchange’s own settlement of its contract. cleared_confirmed is an independent reading of the same question against the EPS the company printed in its earnings release, with reported_eps and reported_source_url beside it so it can be checked. check_status says why the check could not run, rather than leaving a bare null. They stay separate columns because they are separate claims. Where both could be computed they agreed on 421 of 422 cases, and the single exception traced to the release data, not to the settlement.
The independent check runs on about a third of settled contracts — 422 of 1,251 — which is a limit of the release data rather than a verdict. Most of the rest are basis_unknown, where the release printed an EPS without saying whether it was GAAP or adjusted.A null cleared_confirmed therefore means not checked, never that cleared is wrong.

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Earnings Consensus Coverage

Contracts exist for a few hundred companies, not a universe. An empty result means no contract was listed on that company’s quarter, never that nothing is expected of it.

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Earnings Consensus Date Convention

date_gte and date_lte filter on the estimated report date of the quarter, not on the contract’s listing date and not on the settlement date.

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Earnings Consensus Sources

Thresholds and settlements come from the prediction-market exchange. reported_eps and reported_source_url come from the company’s own earnings release, and the confirmation column is computed by FocusAlpha against it.

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Query Earnings Consensus

Use the earnings markets endpoint for one company.
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string
required
A company_id, ticker, CIK or ISIN.
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string
gaap or nongaap. Omit for both, but do not pool them.
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string
Estimated report date on or after this YYYY-MM-DD date. date_lte sets the ceiling.
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integer
default:"100"
Rows per page, between 1 and 1000. Page through with cursor.
See also Prediction Market Prices for the live price on these same contracts, Management Guidance for what management said it expects, and Reported Earnings Figures for every metric the quarter delivered.